Moreover, "in five minutes, the war" flares up right at the borders of Russia. The DPRK's army, by the way, is even larger in number than the Russian one. And the Russian Federation, the United States, China and Japan can be drawn into the conflict.

WHY CHEESE-BOR

Few people already know: the South Korean corvette "Cheonan" recently mysteriously died in the Yellow Sea. They say from a torpedo. The United States immediately launched a joint exercise with South Korean partners to intercept submarines, and four North Korean boats mysteriously disappeared. All at once (two seem to have already been found). Pyongyang and Seoul have brought their armies to full combat readiness, with war cries on both sides of the border. The restrained Japanese also burst through: we must finally teach Juche fans a lesson - how much can you frighten us with nuclear weapons? The voice of mighty China is quiet, but clear: decide everything by political methods - Pyongyang is our neighbor and almost a younger brother. Russia, as usual, preoccupied with the "growing tension", very timely started a large-scale exercise "Vostok-2010" in a region filled with gunpowder. And rightly so: so that they do not forget about her. Here is such a gloomy plotline. So have all the fuses already been removed? We tried to make our prediction - how real is the war between the two Koreas and is it possible to involve the United States, Russia and China in it?

NEIGHBORS WITH GRILLING TEETH

The confrontation between the two Koreas - North and South - has a long history. Legally, they are still belligerent countries: the Korean War in 1953 ended only with a ceasefire agreement. Then the South Korean army was defeated in the very first battles, and by September 1950, the northerners occupied more than 90% of the country's territory. Relations between North and South Korea without a peace treaty constantly spark. The "small" war of intelligence and special forces on the border along the 38th parallel at any moment can turn into a big war. Military experts have long ranked the Korean Peninsula as one of the most unstable regions in the world. Now let's take a look at what military power the conflicting parties have.

FORCE RATIO

North Korea

The armed forces are about 1.5 million fanatical fighters (and there is also a trained reserve of 4.7 million people). In the ground forces: more than 50 tactical missiles, 3,200 tanks, 2,440 armored personnel carriers, 12,700 artillery guns, more than 1,100 multiple launch rocket systems, about 2,000 anti-tank installations, 1,820 anti-aircraft anti-aircraft missile systems.

Air Force and Air Defense: 1158 aircraft and helicopters, 11 thousand anti-aircraft guns. An interesting detail: 200 pilots are personally subordinate to Kim Jong Il and are ready to perform tasks of particular importance. These are suicide bombers ... The DPRK naval forces: 3 missile ships, 2 destroyers, 18 anti-submarine ships. Attack boats: 40 missile, 134 torpedo and 108 artillery boats. About 100 submarines. Nuclear missile potential: tactical missiles with a range of 55 - 70 km, as well as operational-tactical missiles - 300 km, "Nodon-1" - 550 - 600 km and "Tepkhodon" - 1,500 km. The number of missiles can reach: "Nodon" - 200 and "Scud" - 500. The intercontinental "Tepkhodon-2" with a range of up to 7000 km are being developed.

South Korea

Armed forces - 672 thousand people. They are trained by US instructors and are mainly armed with American weapons. In the ground forces: 2,130 tanks, 2,490 armored personnel carriers, 4,400 guns, 143 combat helicopters. In service with the Air Force: 460 combat aircraft and helicopters, including 195 F-5 and 60 F-16 fighters. The navy has 9 submarines, 40 surface ships, not counting patrol boats and landing craft. In addition, 2 marine divisions (25 thousand people). Recently, South Korea began to buy weapons from Russia (80 T-80 tanks).

Whose will it take?

As you can see, North Korea has a 2-fold superiority in this area. And if we also take into account nuclear weapons, then they are complete. But on the side of South Korea are the Americans, who compensate for this "disadvantage" with their military power. Therefore - about the forces that the United States has in this region. 37 thousand people are stationed at bases in Korea. with stocks of weapons and property. And not far away - in Japan - the 3rd Expeditionary Marine Division (Okinawa) is also deployed.

All in all, 47 thousand American troops are concentrated at the bases in Japan. Plus, Yokosuka is home to the US 7th Fleet base. He is able to immediately form and send two carrier strike groups to the Korean coast. And this is 200 aircraft, 4 - 6 missile cruisers and up to 10 missile destroyers. And a dozen more multipurpose submarines with tomahawks. And about 8 missile submarines of the "Ohio" type need not be mentioned: they constantly patrol there.

In addition, we must not forget about Japan itself, which has long been "sharpening its teeth" on its dangerous nuclear missile neighbor ...

UNPREDICTABLE SCENARIO

Let's try to "calculate" the possible course of events. Until the results of the work of the international commission investigating the causes of the sinking of the South Korean corvette have not been approved, Washington and Seoul have no reason to give a "strong answer." But the maneuvering of a joint naval group off North Korean shores could provoke Kim Jong Il's fanatical admirals. And a torpedo or a rocket will go to the side of the "impudent imperialists". This is where it starts. The Americans and their allies will melt the old North Korean "troughs". But the allies will also get it: the North Koreans are both on the water and know how to fight under water. Their suicide submarines will not go to the bottom without prey. The war will spread to land. American "tomahawks", having flown in from a safe distance, will destroy strategic (including nuclear) facilities in North Korea and paralyze the country's governance. And then the South Korean army rushes into battle: the chance for the unification of the two Koreas should not be missed. The naval aircraft will clear the way for her. And the 3rd US Marine Division will clear the already occupied territory. Further, you can fantasize as much as you like, but nevertheless the power scenario of the development of events seems to us the least probable. Here, in our opinion, there are several very important reasons. Here they are:

5 REASONS "AGAINST"

1. The United States already has two wars with weights on its feet - in Iraq and Afghanistan.

2. The DPRK army is well trained and someone else's blood will shed a lot. It is completely impossible to defeat it. The remains of the broken parts will go to the mountains. A long guerrilla war would begin, with great casualties for the Americans and their allies. This will not be forgiven by Congress.

3. The South Korean government, which has long dreamed of a peaceful unification with Pyongyang, is unlikely to agree to "fraternization through war."

4. The Chinese factor: Beijing is unlikely to remain indifferent in the event the US unleashes military action against the DPRK (it only lacked millions of hungry refugees from a neighboring country!).

5. The Russian factor: Moscow, like Beijing, is a united front for a peaceful settlement of the conflict. This tandem is likely to cool the hot heads of the American hawks, who are hungry for the power to "end the North Korean regime once and for all."

WHAT IS PHENYANG?

Pyongyang's position is unpredictable. Kim Jong-il appears to have chosen to balance on the brink of conflict with his sworn enemies. They're trying to drive him into a corner. But he is warlike. After all, the DPRK tested nuclear weapons and missiles capable of reaching the United States. Therefore, it was stated that isolation (and even more so an economic blockade as a method of punishment) would force North Korea to strike powerful blows at key targets of the “main enemy” and his supporters. Meanwhile, the presidents of the United States and South Korea signed an agreement on nuclear protection of southerners from their northern neighbor. Obama added - they say, the United States is not going to tolerate blackmail anymore: "We will make it clear to North Korea that it will not gain respect and will not ensure its security through threats and illegal weapons." They also want to involve Russia in the creation of an “anti-North Korean front”. But she has her own game on this flank. She does not want to quarrel with her neighbor, who, however, dangerously "dabbles" in nuclear weapons. Moscow sluggishly assent to Washington, but nods its head in agreement in the direction of Beijing. How long she can sit on two chairs at once, time will tell. It looks like she is ready to leave "Great Leader" Kim Jong Il to his own destiny ...

SO WHAT'S IN THE TOTAL?

Most likely, everything will proceed according to the long familiar, traditional circle: having exchanged formidable statements and shaking their weapons in front of each other, the conflicting parties will find suitable mediators and, gritting their teeth, once again sit down at the negotiating table. Moreover, Pyongyang is not at all up to the war now - it is necessary to save the people from hunger. And then the United States and South Korea will begin to develop another secret plan to overthrow Kim Jong Il not with missiles, but with the hands of the long-cherished and generously paid opposition.

But what if it's a war after all? Then it will be a war not only with North Korea, but also with China ... Or maybe (pah-pah!), And a world war ...

Photos from open sources

What could the current political confrontation between North Korea and the United States lead to? I won't talk about military-technical matters, since Pyongyang is still far from the Pentagon's capabilities in this matter. But the latest missile launches have alerted the White House and carry the potential danger of turning loud statements into real war.

In this case, Seoul will go to a greater extent, as a side that does not want such an outcome, and literally prays to have time to hobble Kim Jong-un's aspirations before he decides to unite Korea by force and his missiles reach US territory. In the meantime, this is just a war of nerves: who has better endurance and more patience.

The tests of long-range missiles, which the DPRK has been conducting recently, have not been crowned with success, which means that the likelihood of a war with the participation of the United States on the Korean Peninsula is still minimal. US President Donald Trump is unlikely to intervene in a real military conflict over South Korea, but if Pyongyang's missiles threaten Honolulu or San Francisco, the US will not have to wait long for a military response.

Now the Americans are using Beijing as an instrument of pressure on Pyongyang, which has its own interests in the region, and not only acts as an intermediary between the DPRK and the United States. There is no doubt that the Chinese will hint to Kim Jong-un that playing the "powerful enemy of the United States" is possible only up to a certain point: you will cross and become history. Geopolitical and physical suicide is what awaits him.

True, no one will vouch for the mental health of the North Korean leader, therefore, anything can happen. If anyone suffers without fault, it is Seoul. The Kim dynasty in the DPRK has long cherished plans to unite the country under Pyongyang's control, so a repetition of the Korean War will not be an obstacle to them. There is little to do - quality nuclear weapons!

Much now depends on China. Will Beijing convince the Korean leadership to stop provoking the Americans, or will they have to act with harsh methods? In any unfavorable development of events, South Korea will be the loser. Whoever launched the missile strike first, the DPRK will strike Seoul, turning it into ruins. The help of the "sworn friend" - the USA will become only a kind of detonator for the coming destruction.

The world economy will also be dealt a crushing blow through the destruction of interstate economic ties and multi-link production and supply chains around the world. As a member of the Russian Council on International Affairs Gleb Ivashentsov notes:

“The world is now tied in a tight knot, and economic ties are so intertwined that it is simply impossible to carry out a“ surgical delicate ”military operation against one country, even one as small as North Korea. The domino effect will instantly work. "

That is why the leader of the DPRK feels relatively safe, pulling the Americans by the mustache. Trump is primarily a businessman who does not want to jeopardize the interests of the American business community. Who knows how hard the war on the Korean Peninsula will hit the global economy? Stability in the US is also questionable.

There will certainly be consequences if Pyongyang uses the same chemical weapons, endangering the 28,000-strong US contingent on the peninsula, and "touching" Japanese territories. In economic terms, retail chains in the United States will quickly become empty, ceasing to replenish with goods from the countries of East Asia. China can come out in support of the DPRK and then the world market will be hit, really, devastating.

At stake, therefore, is not just the beginning of a new war with potential victims, but the complete destruction of South Korean infrastructure, the disruption of world trade, the collapse of markets, the involvement of China in the conflict and, possibly, the first military use of nuclear weapons since the times of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Undoubtedly, the beginning of the war will "backfire" on many. And this can be avoided if the United States stops poking its nose into other people's affairs.

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Between the irreconcilable enemies - North and South Korea - an exacerbation broke out, which has not been remembered for 50 years already. Moreover, "in five minutes, the war" flares up right on the borders of Russia. The DPRK's army, by the way, is even larger in number than the Russian one. And the Russian Federation, the United States, China and Japan can be drawn into the conflict.

WHY CHEESE-BOR

But few people do not know: the South Korean corvette "Cheonan" recently mysteriously died in the Yellow Sea. They say from a torpedo. The United States immediately launched a joint exercise with South Korean partners to intercept submarines, and four North Korean boats mysteriously disappeared. All at once (two seem to have already been found). Pyongyang and Seoul have brought their armies to full combat readiness, with war cries on both sides of the border. The restrained Japanese also burst through: we must finally teach Juche fans a lesson - how much can you frighten us with nuclear weapons? The voice of mighty China is quiet, but clear: decide everything by political methods - Pyongyang is our neighbor and almost a younger brother. Russia, as usual, preoccupied with the "growing tension", very timely started a large-scale exercise "Vostok-2010" in a region filled with gunpowder. And rightly so: so that they do not forget about her. Here is such a gloomy plotline. So have all the fuses already been removed? We tried to make our prediction - how real is the war between the two Koreas and is it possible to involve the United States, Russia and China in it?

NEIGHBORS WITH GRILLING TEETH

The position of the two Koreas - North and South - has a long history. Legally, they are still belligerent countries: the Korean War in 1953 ended only with a ceasefire agreement. Then the South Korean army was defeated in the very first battles, and by September 1950, the northerners occupied more than 90% of the country's territory. Relations between North and South Korea without a peace treaty constantly spark. The "small" war of intelligence and special forces on the border along the 38th parallel at any moment can turn into a big war. Military experts have long ranked the Korean Peninsula as one of the most unstable regions in the world. Now let's take a look at what military power the conflicting parties have.

FORCE RATIO

North Korea

The armed forces - about 1.5 million fanatical fighters (and there is also a trained reserve - 4.7 million people). In the ground forces: more than 50 tactical missiles, 3,200 tanks, 2,440 armored personnel carriers, 12,700 artillery guns, more than 1,100 multiple launch rocket systems, about 2,000 anti-tank installations, 1,820 anti-aircraft anti-aircraft missile systems.

Air Force and Air Defense: 1158 aircraft and helicopters, 11 thousand anti-aircraft guns. An interesting detail: 200 pilots are personally subordinate to Kim Jong Il and are ready to perform tasks of particular importance. These are suicide bombers ... The DPRK naval forces: 3 missile ships, 2 destroyers, 18 anti-submarine ships. Attack boats: 40 missile, 134 torpedo and 108 artillery boats. About 100 submarines. Nuclear missile potential: tactical missiles with a range of 55 - 70 km, as well as operational-tactical missiles - 300 km, "Nodon-1" - 550 - 600 km and "Tepkhodon" - 1,500 km. The number of missiles can reach: "Nodon" - 200 and "Scud" - 500. The intercontinental "Tepkhodon-2" with a range of up to 7000 km are being developed.

South Korea

The armed forces - 672 thousand people. They are trained by US instructors and are mainly armed with American weapons. In the ground forces: 2,130 tanks, 2,490 armored personnel carriers, 4,400 guns, 143 combat helicopters. In service with the Air Force: 460 combat aircraft and helicopters, including 195 F-5 and 60 F-16 fighters. The navy has 9 submarines, 40 surface ships, not counting patrol boats and landing craft. In addition, 2 marine divisions (25 thousand people). Recently, South Korea began to buy weapons from Russia (80 T-80 tanks).

Whose will it take?

As we can see, North Korea has 2 - 3 times superiority in this area. And if we also take into account nuclear weapons, then they are complete. But on the side of South Korea are the Americans, who compensate for this "disadvantage" with their military power. Therefore - about the forces that the United States has in this region. 37 thousand people are stationed at bases in Korea. with stocks of weapons and property. And not far away - in Japan - the 3rd Expeditionary Marine Division (Okinawa) is also deployed.

In this, in Japan, 47 thousand American troops are concentrated at the bases. Plus, Yokosuka is home to the US 7th Fleet base. He is able to immediately form and send two carrier strike groups to the Korean coast. And this is 200 aircraft, 4 - 6 missile cruisers and up to 10 missile destroyers. And a dozen more multipurpose submarines with tomahawks. And about 8 missile submarines of the "Ohio" type need not be mentioned: they constantly patrol there.

In addition, we must not forget about Japan itself, which has long been "sharpening its teeth" on its dangerous nuclear missile neighbor ...

UNPREDICTABLE SCENARIO

We are trying to "calculate" the possible development of events. Until the results of the work of the international commission investigating the causes of the sinking of the South Korean corvette have not been approved, Washington and Seoul have no reason to give a "strong answer." But the maneuvering of a joint naval group off North Korean shores could provoke Kim Jong Il's fanatical admirals. And a torpedo or a rocket will go to the side of the "impudent imperialists". This is where it starts. The Americans and their allies will melt the old North Korean "troughs". But the allies will also get it: the North Koreans are both on the water and know how to fight under water. Their suicide submarines will not go to the bottom without prey. The war will spread to land. American "tomahawks", having flown in from a safe distance, will destroy strategic (including nuclear) facilities in North Korea and paralyze the country's governance. And then the South Korean army rushes into battle: the chance for the unification of the two Koreas should not be missed. The naval aircraft will clear the way for her. And the 3rd US Marine Division will clear the already occupied territory. Further, you can fantasize as much as you like, but nevertheless the power scenario of the development of events seems to us the least probable. Here, in our opinion, there are several very important reasons. Here they are:

5 REASONS "AGAINST"

1 . The United States already has two wars with weights on its feet - in Iraq and Afghanistan.

2. The DPRK army is well trained and someone else's blood will shed a lot. It is completely impossible to defeat it. The remains of the broken parts will go to the mountains. A long guerrilla war would begin, with great casualties for the Americans and their allies. This will not be forgiven by Congress.

3. The South Korean government, which has long dreamed of a peaceful unification with Pyongyang, is unlikely to agree to "fraternization through war."

4 . The Chinese factor: Beijing is unlikely to remain indifferent if the United States unleashes military action against the DPRK (it only lacked millions of hungry refugees from a neighboring country!).

five . The Russian factor: Moscow, like Beijing, is a united front for a peaceful settlement of the conflict. This tandem is likely to cool the hot heads of the American hawks, who are hungry for the power to "end the North Korean regime once and for all."

WHAT IS PHENYANG?

Pyongyang's position is unpredictable. Kim Jong-il appears to have chosen to balance on the brink of conflict with his sworn enemies. They're trying to drive him into a corner. But he is warlike. After all, the DPRK tested nuclear weapons and missiles capable of reaching the United States. Therefore, it was stated that isolation (and even more so an economic blockade as a method of punishment) would force North Korea to strike powerful blows at key targets of the “main enemy” and his supporters. Meanwhile, the presidents of the United States and South Korea signed an agreement on nuclear protection of southerners from their northern neighbor. Obama added - they say, the United States is not going to tolerate blackmail anymore: "We will make it clear to North Korea that it will not gain respect and will not ensure its security through threats and illegal weapons." They also want to involve Russia in the creation of an “anti-North Korean front”. But she has her own game on this flank. She does not want to quarrel with her neighbor, who, however, dangerously "dabbles" in nuclear weapons. Moscow sluggishly assent to Washington, but nods its head in agreement in the direction of Beijing. How long she can sit on two chairs at once, time will tell. It looks like she is ready to leave "Great Leader" Kim Jong Il to his own destiny ...

SO WHAT'S IN THE TOTAL?

Most likely, everything will go according to the long familiar, traditional circle: having exchanged formidable statements and shaking their weapons in front of each other, the conflicting parties will find suitable mediators and, gritting their teeth, once again sit down at the negotiating table. Moreover, Pyongyang is not at all up to the war now - it is necessary to save the people from hunger. And then the United States and South Korea will begin to develop another secret plan to overthrow Kim Jong Il not with missiles, but with the hands of the long-cherished and generously paid opposition.

How the conflict between the two Koreas threatens peace

P Hyunyang and Seoul, in a quarrel between themselves, as they say, ate a dog. But on November 23, for the first time since the 1953 armistice, the DPRK and South Korea exchanged powerful artillery fire.

The current turmoil happened in the area of \u200b\u200bthe sea border between the two countries in the Yellow Sea, 80 km from the South Korean port of Incheon. Seoul conducted maneuvers there by its naval forces, code-named "Hoguk", and, according to North Korea, the ships of the southerners fired at the waters belonging to the DPRK. This has happened on both sides before: the fire was fired on deserted waters. But this time Pyongyang decided to answer seriously. And on Tuesday afternoon, North Korean artillery bombarded the South Korean island of Yongpyeong (Yongbendo), located in the area.

It covered the local military base and the houses of civilians. According to preliminary data, four people were killed and dozens were injured. About 79 buildings have been destroyed, and fires are raging throughout the island.

South Korean howitzers returned fire on the shores of the DPRK. Nothing is known about its results - Pyongyang, as usual, is silent. Seoul sent its fighters to the maritime border area, but they never took part in the hostilities. The South Korean government, assessing the incident as a "deliberate and planned attack", gathered for an emergency meeting in an underground bunker.

All countries brought their troops to full combat readiness. The world is alarmed: if the conflict escalates, it could affect the American troops stationed in South Korea. Pyongyang traditionally counts on China's help. Are we on the verge of a new world war?

In other matters, only later from Seoul came reports that the Republic of Korea was not going to appeal to the UN with a demand for an urgent convocation of the Security Council. Perhaps this is due to the fact that yesterday the South Korean side admitted through clenched teeth that it was indeed the first to open fire during a naval exercise in the disputed area. True, in Seoul they claim that they were shooting not to the north (towards the DPRK), but to the west. But now you can't prove where the shells flew - there are no craters left in the sea.

Russian Foreign Ministry asks for restraint

“Moscow has received with deep concern the reports of the November 23 artillery shootout between the DPRK and the Republic of Korea in the Yellow Sea, which entailed human casualties,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. - The Russian side decisively condemns any manifestation of force in relations between states and proceeds from the premise that all existing controversial issues should be resolved exclusively by peaceful political and diplomatic means.

We call on both Korean sides to show restraint, a responsible approach and not allow actions that could lead to an escalation of military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula. "

History of inter-Korean confrontation

Until 1945, the Korean Peninsula was a de facto colony of Japan. The northern part of Korea was liberated by Soviet troops, and the part south of the 38th parallel was occupied by the Americans. In 1948, both parts of the peninsula proclaimed themselves states - the pro-Soviet DPRK and the pro-American Republic of Korea.

On June 25, 1950, an armed conflict broke out between them: the leader of the DPRK, Kim Il Sung, with the support of Stalin, decided to "reunite" the country. In response, the US pushed through the UN to send "international forces" to aid South Korea. Later, up to 1 million Chinese "volunteers" and several thousand "military advisers" from the USSR fought on the North Korean side. The ceasefire was signed in 1953, the peace treaty has not yet been concluded.

The armed clashes between the Koreas periodically flared up again. But the confrontation has intensified especially this year. In January, an exchange of artillery salvoes took place in the Yellow Sea region. In March, the South Korean corvette Cheonan sank in an explosion, killing 46 people. Seoul blamed the DPRK for this incident.

The leaders of the United States and North Korea are rapidly raising the stakes in their standoff, making war almost inevitable. At the same time, China has already announced that it will stand up for the DPRK in case of an attempt to change the local regime.

In recent days, the situation around North Korea has become so serious that everything else has ceased to matter. The jokes were over. The world is indeed on the verge of the first nuclear war in its history.

I wrote about the development of recent events in several recent reviews. If you're interested, read it. Today my worst fears of spiraling out of control have received a few more confirmation.

US President Donald Trump tweeted: “The military solution is completely ready. The weapon is loaded and aimed at the target. In case North Korea acts unwisely. I hope Kim Jong-un chooses otherwise. "

This was followed by a presidential tweet with photographs of American bombers and fighters "ready to take off on mission tonight." The hint is completely transparent.

Even the US representative to the UN, Nikki Haley, announced that diplomatic methods of resolving the conflict have been exhausted. "We have nothing more to talk to them about," she wrote on her Twitter.

The only senior Trump administration official who seems to understand the implications of a potential conflict is Defense Secretary James Mattis: “We know very well what wars lead to. There is only one word to describe what is happening - a catastrophe. "

Washington's formidable rhetoric has by no means forced Pyongyang to switch back. North Korean state news agency CTAC accused the US of "a criminal attempt to destroy the Korean people in a nuclear disaster" and a desire to "test their weapons on the Koreans." "The United States is the author and inspirer of nuclear war, a country fanatically dreaming about it," North Korean ideologists believe. In response, they promised to turn the continental US "into a theater of nuclear war."

Before that, let me remind you, Pyongyang accused Trump of losing his mind and, like Nikki Haley, came to the conclusion that no dialogue is possible under the circumstances.

It seems that this is really so: as long as the parties call each other "imperialist beast" and "mad communist dictatorship", it will not be easy for them to agree on something sensible. Therefore, the whole world is now trying to understand what the alternative might be. In short, very, very bad.

Plans for a war with North Korea have been drawn up at the Pentagon for decades - at least since the days of Bill Clinton. But last week they were all instantly out of date. According to American intelligence, Pyongyang has ballistic missiles capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to Los Angeles, Chicago and New York. This significantly complicates any military confrontation with the DPRK.

Now hordes of specialists and experts are trying to figure out "what will happen if?" If, in the event of a war, one such missile reaches its target? And if ten? And if all 60, as some Western analysts believe? It will not work to hide all the people in the shelters: from Pyongyang to San Francisco, a nuclear missile flies for only half an hour. There simply won't be time for a complete evacuation.

The same missile will deliver a nuclear warhead to 10 million Seoul in just three minutes. According to preliminary estimates, even in the best case, about 150 thousand people will die in the same second, another 300 thousand will be injured and injured, and the rest will be rushed away from the country. The healthcare system (this is at least) will immediately be overloaded, wild chaos will begin with unpredictable consequences.

A nuclear explosion over Tokyo, for example, will entail even more dire consequences - in addition to casualties and destruction in Japan itself, the entire world economy will suffer a terrible blow. Now nuclear weapons are scary not only by the shock and heat wave itself, but also by the electromagnetic pulse, which will knock out absolutely all electronics in the affected area. And the world has now become very dependent on her.

Such a development of events now seems more and more real. North Korea, realizing that such losses are simply unbearable for the world, continues to escalate. Pyongyang has already announced its intention to launch four medium-range ballistic missiles in the region of the American island of Guam. This is a real slap in the face of the President of the United States. He can hardly bear it.

If these missiles (or warheads) are shot down (or destroyed from the air at launch pads), North Korea's response could be massive conventional shelling of Seoul. Or a missile strike against Japan. Or something else, but ten times more significant. According to James Stavridis, a retired US admiral of the fleet, "this development will almost certainly unleash an upward spiral of violence that is almost impossible to control."

In fact, after the North Korean response to the destruction of missiles, the United States and its allies will have to decide whether to start a full-fledged war or not. To start means to endanger a nuclear strike at least in Seoul and Tokyo. Donald Trump cannot ignore this.

Another way out of the situation is to deliver massive preventive strikes against North Korean nuclear facilities, troop concentrations, equipment and military administrative centers. But there is no guarantee that everything will be destroyed. Even Trump cannot risk a millionaire city - South Korean, Japanese, or American. And this is another opportunity for the DPRK.

By rapidly raising the stakes in its confrontation with the United States, North Korea is breaking the unity of the Americans and their Far Eastern allies. Neither Japan nor South Korea wants to be hit by a nuclear attack because the United States cannot bear the appearance of a nuclear missile from Pyongyang capable of reaching the White House. Tokyo and Seoul, in a sense, are used to living with a sense of constant threat, and do not want to suffer because of the sudden appearance in Washington. South Korea, for example, is now even more afraid of Trump's actions than Kim's.

Under these conditions, both Tokyo and Seoul will most likely ask the United States to reduce the intensity of the confrontation and not respond to North Korean provocations. Whether Trump will listen to them is a separate question. According to The Washington Post, he is not ready to make any concessions to Kim Jong-un, believing that this would establish "false moral equality" between them.

Perhaps, however, the hot American president can be stopped by something else. Today, China has said its weighty word about everything that is happening. Local state media wrote that the PRC would "remain neutral" if North Korean missiles did fly to American Guam. However, in the event that the United States and its allies start a war and try to overthrow the regime of Kim Jong-un, then China "will have to prevent this."

China's involvement in the approaching war is a completely different reality. The PRC certainly has nuclear ballistic missiles, and if necessary, they will reach the United States without any problems. As, in fact, and American - in the opposite direction. But this will no longer be the Second Korean War, but the Third World War.

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